Bitcoin price (BTC) is holding effectually $nine,445 afterwards some impressive growth over the concluding few weeks. Only is this the penultimate Bitcoin bull market that has been anticipated since the comport market ripped through traders' emotions in 2022 and 2022, or is this another fake rally that volition leave hodlers disappointed and dislocated?

Let's take a look at the charts to find out!

Daily crypto market performance

Daily crypto market performance. Source: Coin360.com

The monthly flip

BTC USD monthly chart

BTC USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView

In my January. 12 assay I wrote that my greatest concern was the bearish nature of the monthly nautical chart. At the time the moving average divergence convergence (MACD) indicator was sitting on its kickoff red candle of the MACD histogram, however, all other major time frames such as the weekly and daily were looking bullish.

Despite these concerns, I made a case that a new bull market could be ushered in, should the price agree above $8,500 over a menstruation of around two-three weeks, as this would inherently change the dynamic of the charts.

At present that 3 weeks accept passed investors are likely more heady than disappointed. The new calendar month started yesterday and with information technology came a bullish engulfing candle that has completely transformed the Bitcoin charts from somewhat bullish with some bearish possibilities to incredibly bullish. This occurrence was likewise followed by a noticeable shift in sentiment beyond social media.

So is this the bull run we've all been waiting for or is something less exciting responsible for the recent moves?

Bitcoin mining difficulty increase

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Chart

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Chart. Source: world wide web.btc.com

On Jan. 14 the price of Bitcoin rose from $8,140 to $8,879 which represented a daily increase of around 8.5%. On the same day, the Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 7.08% and it seems this is a running pattern then far in 2022.

On Jan. i Bitcoin price was approximately $7,200, and there was an increase in mining difficulty of half-dozen.57%. Whilst there wasn't an immediate change, five days later the Bitcoin price increased by around vii% before stabilizing for 9 days, which is when nosotros saw the eight.5% movement on Jan 14.

This brings the states to January. 28 with a minor difficulty increment of 4.67% which saw the toll leap from $8,900 to $nine,350, which is once over again, around the same percentage increase as the mining difficulty.

Currently, there is footling over a week until the next iv.46% difficulty increment, and so does this mean that Bitcoin will spring another five% bringing the states always closer to that elusive $ten,000 barrier this time adjacent week? If so, could this metric exist giving us a taste of what'southward to come with the upcoming halving?

The weekly MACD enters a bullish phase

BTC USD monthly chart

BTC USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView

The weekly moving average departure convergence (MACD) indicator, has always proved an accurate buy/sell indicator for Bitcoin. The last bullish phase started on February. 11, 2022, when the toll was merely $three,695.

This lasted 28 weeks and saw Bitcoin rise to a high of $thirteen,800 at the xx-week mark, before crossing bearish again on the 19th of August, at which point the toll was notwithstanding around $11,000.

1 cannot help only be excited at the prospect of what is ahead of the states, as the halving is only 14 weeks away. This is only half of the concluding bullish stage on the MACD so where could the price realistically get?

Realistic expectations

BTC USD weekly chart

BTC USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

At the moment there's a lot of misinformation being thrown around. Yesterday Cointelegraph reported that some crypto YouTubers are forecasting that Bitcoin price volition rise to $100,000 in 2022.

As a crypto YouTuber myself, I find this sort of prediction embarrassing and unsubstantiated, as historically the price of Bitcoin doesn't start to take off until betwixt 6 months to a year later the actual halving date.

In November 2022 when the starting time reward halving happened, Bitcoin was trading at around $ten, and the price didn't start to gain traction until March 2022 when the price climbed to $xxx.

However, this wasn't the outset time Bitcoin striking $thirty. Bitcoin had really between in a two-year carry market in the run-upwards and beyond the halving date as the price was $31 in June 2022.

After Bitcoin reached $30 again the price did absolutely go parabolic. In April 2022 Bitcoin cost reached a high of $269 before falling dorsum to effectually the $130 zone until the cease of October 2022 and this is the indicate where the price dramatically took off and reached a price of $ane,176 by November 2022. Nonetheless, this was 12 months after the halving date.

The final halving date was July 2022 and once again the numbers aren't that heady. At the betoken of the halving itself, the price was around $650, effectually 45% lower than the all-fourth dimension loftier. The price gained around ten% by December 2022 but didn't exceed the previous best high until March 2022, 10 months afterwards the actual halving engagement.

Then with that in mind, how likely is it that Bitcoin could fifty-fifty achieve the previous all-time loftier of $20,000 in 2022, let lone a figure v times that?  As such, it is more than reasonable to await steady growth through 2022, and possibly a parabolic move in 2022 rather. With that being said, traders need to take this market place one calendar week at a fourth dimension.

The week ahead

BTC USD weekly chart

BTC USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Bullish scenario

At that place's some heavy overhead resistance around $9,500 and this effigy seems to span dorsum as both key back up and resistance over the last 9 months. With the increase in mining difficulty in a week's time, I wait Bitcoin will intermission past this pivotal point earlier encountering its last level of resistance at around $10,000.

Should Bitcoin breakout of this channel, I'd be looking for a meaningful move beyond $10,400 before getting too excited.

Bearish scenario

Everything looks bullish this week and so should traders be worried?

At the moment, support can be found around $9,150 and $9,000 but it is worth noting that Bitcoin has had a stiff bullish run over the last few weeks, therefore a pullback is to be expected at some bespeak.

If the toll were to intermission downward below $viii,600 this would exist a worrying evolution.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of @officiallykeith and do non necessarily reverberate the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a determination.